Drafting the Draft

The reason why people like Charles Rangel want the draft to return is not because of disproportionate representation of minorities in the military. Casualties in Iraq are actually disproportionately white. It is rather a cynical attempt to decrease support for the war by suggesting to people that they or their family members should be forced to fight it, rather than just the voluntary forces that we have now. The lesson plan for the draft bill drafters is the history of the opposition to the Vietnam War, where the fact of the draft strongly motivated the grassroots opposition, and made opposing the war more popular.

They have seen that while opposition to the war in Iraq was reasonably popular, it was never as widespread as opposition to Vietnam eventually became. Of course there are many other reasons for this difference, such as the perceived need to fight the war in the first place. And certainly all these factors affecting public support for the war in Iraq change on a nearly daily basis. It may yet turn out that the public demands an end to it even without a victory, depending largely on the situation there. But if one wanted to end the war without having to rely on the facts on the ground getting worse to turn people's opinion against the war, the draft is an excellent alternative. Most people are against returning the draft, so support for any war is bound to decrease with a draft in place.

Unfortunately for the anti-war groups, the Bush administration, Congress, and the military weren't being particularly cooperative in signaling a return of a draft. In fact they all pretty much said no way whenever the subject came up.

At some point, somebody noticed that having an actual draft in place, or even in the planning stages, wasn't necessary in order to have the desired effect. Just the fear of it returning at some nebulous point in the future is enough. And some Democrats noticed too that the spectre of the draft could do double duty. Not only could it raise opposition to the war, it could raise opposition to President Bush as well. It's genius. How can Bush deny it? No one's saying that there is a draft, or even that Bush is planning on bringing it back. The charge is that it's inevitable under a second Bush term no matter what Bush or the military says now. It's response-proof.

So one of Kerry's themes in the homestretch of this race is that the draft will return if Bush is reelected. And in this, not surprisingly, Kerry has plenty of help.

[Paul Krugman:] By all accounts, in a second term the architects of [the Bush] doctrine, like Paul Wolfowitz, would be promoted, not replaced. The only way this makes sense is if Mr. Bush is prepared to seek a much larger Army - and that means reviving the draft.

[Andrew Sullivan:] For the record, I cannot possibly see how the Bush administration can achieve its global objectives without a big increase in military troop levels or a draft.

[MoveOn Student Action (pdf), in an ad running in college papers:] Oh yes, President Bush insists he won’t bring back the draft. But remember: this is the same president who swore that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That Saddam was linked to 9/11. And that Iraqis would welcome us with open arms. He was dead wrong every time.

With George Bush stubbornly determined to go it alone, our allies won’t join us. American troops will still be 90 percent of the “coalition.” And 90 percent of its dead and wounded. And the volunteer military will be a casualty of war.

So unless you like the idea of graduate school in Fallujah, we need to pay careful attention to what our president is saying, versus what it really means.

Now do you feel that draft?

And of course, there's always CBS.

It's a rather shameless orgy of fake dread with a little righteousness thrown in. It seems to be helping Kerry for the moment. There is the potential for a Mary Cheney-style backlash though. Someone needs to be the at long last, have you no decency guy. I don't know who that would be though- no one from the MSM certainly.

Two weeks to go.