Madrid 2012?

The BBC has a story about London's bid to hold the games there in 2012 (2008 is already set for Beijing). The other contenders are Paris, Madrid, New York, and Moscow. Not that I'm an expert on the contention of Olympic host cities, but I don't recall such a strong list of candidates in recent history. There's no Atlanta, Mexico City, or Sydney in the bunch, Madrid possibly excepted. They're world capitals, or former world capitals all.

Checking the official list of host cities, we see that London has already hosted the games twice, in 1908 and 1948; Paris has also hosted the games twice, in 1900 and 1924; and Moscow of course held them in 1980, when the Americans didn't go. Madrid and New York have never hosted the games, though Spain hosted the games in Barcelona as recently as 1992, and the US hosted twice in recent history: Atlanta 1996 and Los Angeles 1984, when the Russians didn't come. The US hosted two more times in history, LA again in 1932, and St. Louis in 1904, coinciding with the World's Fair there.

Now I realize that the Olympic committee takes a lot more into consideration than who hosted how many times before, but I don't care. I've got to give the edge to Madrid and New York. It's too early in Olympic history to start holding the games for a third time in any city, so Paris and London are out. These leaves Moscow available for a second go-round, but that country is in a bit of a mess at the moment, and I don't think the committee wants the headache.

Political considerations aren't supposed to matter, but they do, so that's why I'm guessing that Madrid will be chosen over New York. Holding the games in Madrid rather than in New York, both recent Al Qaeda targets, will send a signal about the correct way of being a victim of terrorism, putting the Olympic stamp of disapproval on the old adage that the best defense is a strong offense.

By that reasoning I wouldn't be too surprised if Paris is chosen, hat trick aside, since France has the advantage of never having supported the war in Iraq, and they've lots of good things to say against hyperpuissance.

Now that I've made my prediction, I'll probably turn out to be wrong. We'll see. The decision will be made in July 2005.

I'd say to New York to be careful what you wish for. I lived in Atlanta in 1996, and I can't say that the games did anything in particular for that city. And New York hardly needs the prestige the games supposedly bestow. Atlanta's mayor at the time, Bill Campbell, remarked on local radio shortly after the games ended (paraphrasing from memory), "The Olympics were here and now they're gone, off to bother some other city." He was a funny guy sometimes.